As Republicans work to pass their catchall legislation that could include cuts to Medicaid, Democrats are preparing to use the vote as a cudgel against vulnerable GOP members in midterms next year.
That is one of the takeaways from a piece we wrote today with Paige Winfield Cunningham and Theodoric Meyer, which examines how Republicans, aware of the political peril of cutting a program like Medicaid, have curbed their plans, while Democrats see even the flirtation with Medicaid cuts as a salient campaign attack in 2026.
“I have been telling people, ‘There is pain coming down the pike at you. If these cuts go through … you may not feel the pain right now, but it is coming,’” said Bob Harvie, a Democrat on the Board of Bucks County Commissioners in Pennsylvania who is challenging Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. The race to oust Fitzpatrick in southeastern Pennsylvania is expected to be one of the most closely watched House contests in the nation.
Harvie is not alone.
Democrats in rural stretches of the country told us that any changes to Medicaid, the safety-net health insurance program that was dramatically expanded under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, will just further exacerbate the ongoing crisis around rural hospitals and health-care providers who rely on Medicaid to reimburse them for the services they offer.
“Rural hospitals will close,” said Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic state senator challenging Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa.
“Those rural hospitals are on the edge and are struggling right now to keep their doors open,” said Trone Garriott,a Lutheran pastor who has worked as a hospital chaplain. “If we see cuts to Medicaid, that is going to fast-track hospital closures.”
Republicans are clearly aware of the political peril Medicaid cuts could put their members in. Republican leadership is instead leaning toward smaller changes such as adding work requirements and extra eligibility checks — ideas more palatable to moderate and vulnerable Republicans.
Three Republicans facing tough races next year — Nunn, Don Bacon of Nebraska and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin — also introduced a resolution this week that would prohibit Republicans from cutting Medicaid benefits for children, seniors, pregnant women or people with disabilities.