Key Findings

A new poll conducted by Change Research confirms that State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott is the strongest Democratic candidate to defeat Republican Congressman Zach Nunn and flip Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, which is one of the most competitive seats in the country and pivotal to winning back control of the U.S. House. Key findings include:

• IA-03 is a clear Democratic pick-up opportunity. Today, a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican by 3 points (45/42).

• Zach Nunn (-11 job approval / -9 favorability) is solidly underwater with IA-03 voters.

• Sarah Trone Garriott emerges as the strongest Democrat to defeat Zach Nunn:
  • After profiles, Sarah Trone Garriott leads Zach Nunn by 13 points (53/40)
  • After profiles, Jennifer Konfrst only leads Zach Nunn by 8 points (50/42)

• Sarah Trone Garriot holds significant advantages with the voters who will decide this election.
  • The memo notes that, “Trone Garriott leads 47-19 with the voters most persuadable in the district while Konfrst holds only a 38-26 advantage.”
    
  • While both Democratic candidates perform similarly in Polk County, “Trone Garriott performs better in suburban Dallas County and the rural parts of the district.”
    
  • Trone Garriott also wins nearly a quarter (23%) of self-described “weak” Republicans, compared to just 8% for Konfrst.”

This makes it clear that Sarah Trone Garriott is undoubtedly the strongest candidate to defeat Zach Nunn because her message and biography connect with voters across the district, including the swing and persuadable voters who will decide this election.

Sarah’s Unique Appeal to Swing and Rural Voters

The poll shows that Sarah performs eight points better with rural voters than Jennifer Konfrst, underscoring her unmatched ability to reach voters Democrats have struggled to win in recent years. As a minister, nonprofit leader, and mom of two public-school kids, Sarah’s authenticity and record of service give her credibility with independents, moderates, and even disaffected Republicans across Iowa’s 3rd District.

Her background of service, from AmeriCorps to hospital chaplaincy to the State Senate, allows her to speak directly to the values and concerns of working Iowans. It’s the same coalition that helped her flip two Republican-held districts and win re-election in a Trump-won district.

A Proven Candidate with the Resources to Win

Democrats have a tremendous opportunity to flip this seat and help retake the House, but only if we nominate the candidate who can win.

Sarah Trone Garriott has raised more than $1 million to date, far surpassing Jennifer Konfrst, who has raised less than half that amount. Sarah’s fundraising success reflects broad enthusiasm, grassroots strength, and the confidence of Iowans and national Democrats alike that she is best positioned to beat Nunn.

Her momentum is undeniable, from record fundraising to a commanding lead in this poll, and it’s driven by a message that resonates: lowering costs, restoring reproductive rights, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and taking on Washington corruption.

The Bottom Line

This new poll leaves no doubt:

Sarah Trone Garriott is the strongest Democrat to defeat Zach Nunn, flip IA-03, and help Democrats take back the U.S. House.

Her message works, her record proves she can win, and the numbers speak for themselves.

Learn more about Sarah online at SarahforIowa.com.